DSS

Phase: Contraction

Trigger Logic: Liquidity Distortion, Malinvestment Signals, Labor Overheating, Inflation Feedback Loop, Correction Onset

Evaluation Date: 2026-07-03

ABCT Phase Progression


Current Phase: Contraction	Next Phase: Liquidation	Cycle Sequence:

Liquidity Distortion — Status: Depressed

Label	Ticker	Source	Value	Status
Upper Bound of Fed Funds Target Range	DFEDTARU	FRED	3.75%	Normal
Lower Bound of Fed Funds Target Range	DFEDTARL	FRED	3.50%	Normal
10-Year Treasury Yield	DGS10	FRED	4.48%	Normal
2-Year Treasury Yield	DGS2	FRED	4.17%	Normal
3-Month Treasury Yield	DGS3MO	FRED	3.85%	Normal
3M Commercial Paper Rate	DCPF3M	FRED	3.89%	Depressed
Reverse Repo Operations	RRPONTSYD	FRED	2B	Depressed

Malinvestment Signals — Status: Depressed

Label	Ticker	Source	Value	Status
Durable Goods Orders MoM	DGORDER_MOM	Computed	-4.03%	Depressed
Construction Spending YoY	TTLCONS_YOY	Computed	2.84%	Elevated
Industrial Production YoY	INDPRO_YOY	Computed	-0.97%	Depressed
Retail Sales YoY	RSAFS_YOY	Computed	6.65%	Normal

Labor Overheating — Status: Depressed

Label	Ticker	Source	Value	Status
Nonfarm Payrolls YoY	PAYEMS_YOY	Computed	-0.29%	Depressed
Job Openings (JOLTS)	JTSJOL	FRED	7,594K	Normal
Hourly Earnings YoY	CES0500000003_YOY	Computed	3.66%	Normal
Unemployment Rate	UNRATE	FRED	4.20%	Normal
Labor Force Participation Rate	CIVPART	FRED	61.50%	Normal
Initial Jobless Claims	ICSA	FRED	215,000K	Normal

Inflation Feedback Loop — Status: Elevated

Label	Ticker	Source	Value	Status
CPI YoY	CPIAUCSL_YOY	Computed	3.02%	Normal
Core CPI YoY	CPILFESL_YOY	Computed	3.03%	Normal
PCE YoY	PCEPI_YOY	Computed	4.07%	Elevated
Core PCE YoY	PCEPILFE_YOY	Computed	3.41%	Normal
GDP Deflator YoY	GDPDEF_YOY	Computed	3.29%	Normal
PPI YoY	PPIACO_YOY	Computed	13.09%	Elevated

Growth Diagnostics — Status: Normal

Label	Ticker	Source	Value	Status
Real GDP QoQ Annualized	GDPC1_QOQANN	Computed	1.04%	Normal
Gross Domestic Product (Current Dollars)	GDPCA	FRED	23,864B	Normal

Correction Onset — Status: Depressed

Label	Ticker	Source	Value	Status
Yield Curve Spread (10Y–2Y)	T10Y2Y	FRED	0.35%	Normal
Yield Curve Spread (10Y–3M)	T10Y3M	FRED	0.67%	Normal
High Yield Credit Spread	BAMLH0A0HYM2EY	FRED	6.98%	Normal
ICE BofA HY Option-Adjusted Spread	BAMLHE00EHYIOAS	FRED	2.71%	Normal
Baa Corporate Bond Yield	DBAA	FRED	6.02%	Normal
5-Year Forward Inflation Expectation Rate	T5YIFR	FRED	2.22%	Normal
University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment	UMCSENT	FRED	44.80	Depressed
St. Louis Financial Stress Index	STLFSI4	FRED	-0.64	Normal
30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rate	MORTGAGE30US	FRED	6.43%	Normal

Status Re-Evaluator