DSS

Phase: Contraction

Trigger Logic: Liquidity Distortion, Malinvestment Signals, Growth Diagnostics, Correction Onset

Evaluation Date: 2026-01-13

ABCT Phase Progression


Current Phase: Contraction	Next Phase: Liquidation	Cycle Sequence:

Liquidity Distortion — Status: Depressed

Label	Ticker	Source	Value	Status
Upper Bound of Fed Funds Target Range	DFEDTARU	FRED	3.75%	Normal
Lower Bound of Fed Funds Target Range	DFEDTARL	FRED	3.50%	Normal
10-Year Treasury Yield	DGS10	FRED	4.19%	Normal
2-Year Treasury Yield	DGS2	FRED	3.54%	Normal
3-Month Treasury Yield	DGS3MO	FRED	3.67%	Normal
3M Commercial Paper Rate	DCPF3M	FRED	3.64%	Depressed
Reverse Repo Operations	RRPONTSYD	FRED	3B	Depressed

Malinvestment Signals — Status: Depressed

Label	Ticker	Source	Value	Status
Durable Goods Orders MoM	DGORDER_MOM	Computed	-2.00%	Depressed
Construction Spending YoY	TTLCONS_YOY	Computed	-1.63%	Depressed
Industrial Production YoY	INDPRO_YOY	Computed	-0.15%	Depressed
Retail Sales YoY	RSAFS_YOY	Computed	3.54%	Normal

Labor Overheating — Status: Normal

Label	Ticker	Source	Value	Status
Nonfarm Payrolls YoY	PAYEMS_YOY	Computed	0.37%	Normal
Job Openings (JOLTS)	JTSJOL	FRED	7,146K	Normal
Hourly Earnings YoY	CES0500000003_YOY	Computed	3.76%	Normal
Unemployment Rate	UNRATE	FRED	4.40%	Normal
Labor Force Participation Rate	CIVPART	FRED	62.40%	Normal
Initial Jobless Claims	ICSA	FRED	208,000K	Normal

Inflation Feedback Loop — Status: Normal

Label	Ticker	Source	Value	Status
CPI YoY	CPIAUCSL_YOY	Computed	3.02%	Normal
Core CPI YoY	CPILFESL_YOY	Computed	3.03%	Normal
PCE YoY	PCEPI_YOY	Computed	2.79%	Normal
Core PCE YoY	PCEPILFE_YOY	Computed	2.83%	Normal
GDP Deflator YoY	GDPDEF_YOY	Computed	2.97%	Normal
PPI YoY	PPIACO_YOY	Computed	3.82%	Normal

Growth Diagnostics — Status: Elevated

Label	Ticker	Source	Value	Status
Real GDP QoQ Annualized	GDPC1_QOQANN	Computed	4.27%	Elevated
Gross Domestic Product (Current Dollars)	GDPCA	FRED	23,358B	Normal

Correction Onset — Status: Depressed

Label	Ticker	Source	Value	Status
Yield Curve Spread (10Y–2Y)	T10Y2Y	FRED	0.65%	Normal
Yield Curve Spread (10Y–3M)	T10Y3M	FRED	0.51%	Normal
High Yield Credit Spread	BAMLH0A0HYM2EY	FRED	6.49%	Normal
ICE BofA HY Option-Adjusted Spread	BAMLHE00EHYIOAS	FRED	2.56%	Normal
Baa Corporate Bond Yield	DBAA	FRED	5.89%	Normal
5-Year Forward Inflation Expectation Rate	T5YIFR	FRED	2.23%	Normal
University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment	UMCSENT	FRED	51.00	Depressed
St. Louis Financial Stress Index	STLFSI4	FRED	-0.57	Normal
30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rate	MORTGAGE30US	FRED	6.16%	Normal

Status Re-Evaluator