Cantillon — Liquidity Cycle
Natural-rate gap — policy rate vs Wicksellian r*
2.58%
Restrictive Rate
← accommodative (below r*)
restrictive (above r*) →
The market rate sits well above the estimated natural rate — a materially restrictive stance that pulls toward the Correction / Liquidation regime.
Evidence pillars
Four independent kinds of evidence, scored and aggregated from their member themes.
A positive score leans toward the pillar's boom/expansion reading; negative toward bust.
Growth & Jobs
How busy the economy is — growth, demand, and hiring.
-0.23
score (z)
Cooling Off
Picking Up
top:
Growth
(-0.24)
Early-stage Cooling Off — activity is easing a bit
Financial Conditions
Borrowing costs, inflation, and how tight or loose money feels.
0.00
score (z)
Loosening Up
Tightening Up
top:
Stress
(-0.48)
Neutral — borrowing costs and inflation feel unchanged
Credit Conditions
How easily money is being lent — banks, markets, and new borrowing.
+0.43
score (z)
Hard to Get Credit
Credit Flowing Easily
top:
Credit / behavior
(+0.43)
Early-stage Credit Flowing Easily — credit is loosening slightly
Where the Economy Is Leaning
Whether activity leans toward business investment or consumer demand.
+0.65
score (z)
Consumer-Driven
CapEx Investment-Driven
top:
Capital structure
(+0.65)
Moderately CapEx Investment-Driven — leaning modestly toward business investment
See the full liquidity-cycle verdict
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the signals behind each pillar, what would flip the cycle, and phase-based
ETF positioning.
What would flip the cycle
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This information is for paid subscribers. 35 indicators sitting near a phase-flip threshold. Sign in to see which, how close, and which way a cross would move the call.